August UPDATE – What’s relevant NOW

Hello Hello,

It’s the last days of summer and hopefully you’ve scored some time off.  I’ll keep this as brief as possible so you can get back to the beach.

Total TREB sales increased by 19% annually in July to 6,921 homes, the strongest year-over-year growth recorded since September of 2016. The rebound in July marked a substantial reversal over the 41% drop recorded in July 2017, which represented the weakest point of the market downturn last year. However, sales were still 14% lower than the decade average for July (8,123). Despite the dramatic market shifts over the past two years, the 10-year average annual change for TREB sales remained in line with broader long-term economic growth of 2.5%.

Market conditions firmed up in July as supply tightened. For the fifth consecutive month, new listings declined on an annual basis, decreasing by 1.8% in July. Supply levels have been stabilizing following the sharp run-up last year as sellers tried to time the perceived top of the market and multiple re-listings occurred as conditions changed quickly. The improvement in demand relative to supply helped the market return to balanced conditions, with a sales-to-new listings ratio of 50%, up from 42% in July 2017. Over the last 10 years, the market was mostly in a seller’s market, characterized by a sales-to-new listings ratio above 60%.

Average prices increased by 4.8% year-over-year in July, the second positive gain in a row. After recording double-digit declines during the February to April period, price growth returned to its level from a year ago.

Condominium apartment sales increased year-over-year in July for the first time since April 2017, registering a 9% gain. Detached housing sales grew at a faster annual rate of 27% in July, the second consecutive annual increase.

On a regional basis, sales grew the most in York Region in July, with a 35% rebound. York Region experienced the sharpest slowdown in activity last year. Halton Region closely followed with a 29% increase, with activity growing fastest in Toronto in the West end, where sales increased 21%. With strong demand, tight supply, and a shift in activity into the higher-end during July, prices grew fastest in Central Toronto with a 13.5% increase to an average of $932,000, bringing its two-year growth to 25%. The next highest two-year growth was found in Peel Region at 16% (to an average of $716,000).